Future Classics

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stevemarl
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Future Classics

Post by stevemarl » Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:30 am

A comment left by `PGR` on Autoexpress` website, regarding an article about `future classics` (Focus RS etc). Interesting thoughts: car shows do tend already to be mostly, not entirely but certainly mostly, older people. Younger people I know have zero interest in cars at all, no more than in their fridge. .

`One of the things that bothers me today about supposed future classic cars is whether or not they will actually have big values in 25 or 30 years as we stand upon the threshold of a revolution.
I mean, if everyone drives and buys electric then as seems extremely likely, and let's say a large percentage of cars are self driving and this is all an entire generation is used to and wants, where does the petrol classic come in? You might say as the weekender maybe, but think carefully about where the industry and public opinion is headed. Millions of people born this decade may never drive an internal combustion engined car with manual gears unless they seek one out specifically. Most born this year definitely won't!
These values are based on a lot of people wanting and willing to pay good money for something. I can see a future where a rare Ferrari of course will still be worth big money even just as a historical artifact, but many cars below that won't be. Who wants a smelly internal combustion engine Clio where you have to drive manually 30 miles to find a place that still sells petrol at £10 a litre, all the way passing a thousand frowning disapproving people? If you are over the age of 50 then you may have the desire despite this, but for a big chunk of the under 40s they won't share the nostalgia. You might like the idea of your CD collection, but anyone under 25 finds it hilariously old fashioned with no desire to build their own.
This isn't something anyone had to think about when practical mass produced electric or self driving cars were an unimaginable fanciful pipedream. Now they are a reality that is fast approaching.
I am not convinced that as many petrol powered cars will have classic status in that future. I don't think that (near) future generations will see them the way some enthusiasts today do, the appeal will be less. They will have to be very special cars indeed to climb steeply in value.`

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Re: Future Classics

Post by andyd » Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:19 am

I think in 20 years time car events will be completely different.

Most of the people I do shows/meets with now are around 50, so at 70 years old a few may still have their cars, if they can keep them on the road with parts availability/cost etc, some may not drive at all, and as the cars we like are not of interest to younger people, events will be mostly cars from 2000 onwards, and nothing of real interest.

I know alot of approx 70 year olds that still have Mk2 Escorts and other cars from that era, apart from our age groups that remember them on the roads when we were kids, not many are that interested in them now.

What will become of our cars when we want to sell them on? Yes collectors will always want something to sit and look at, but to drive and show I don't see them being wanted by many :?

Subaru, Skylines, Evos, Focus ST/RS etc are what many young drivers are interestd in now, but how many of those cars will survive?

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Re: Future Classics

Post by D366Y » Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:49 am

andyd wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:19 am
What will become of our cars when we want to sell them on? Yes collectors will always want something to sit and look at, but to drive and show I don't see them being wanted by many :?
Don't worry Andy, I'll take them off your hands for you! :D
For a very low price of course when they aren't worth anything in 20years :lol:

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Re: Future Classics

Post by andyd » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:33 am

D366Y wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:49 am
andyd wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:19 am
What will become of our cars when we want to sell them on? Yes collectors will always want something to sit and look at, but to drive and show I don't see them being wanted by many :?
Don't worry Andy, I'll take them off your hands for you! :D
For a very low price of course when they aren't worth anything in 20years :lol:
:cheers:
Luckily Danny there are people like you that are enthusiastic about the older cars :)

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Major_Tom » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:35 am

Lots of conjecture and generalisation in that article. "anyone under 25 finds your cd collection hilarious"

Yes because no young people use LPs either do they! There are always humans that defy the trend.

When your internet connection goes down, we turn to what we have downloaded and good old fashioned hardware to keep the party going.

Similarly, when 50 year old cars are still being fixed by the side of the road, sometimes in seconds, then tearing offat 100mph, the downsides of new cars, with limp home modes and sensors that just seem to malfunction a lot and cost hundreds to fix...the benefits of the older tech stand out. Some young folk will be desperate to keep it.
My car isn't stupid.... it's MENTAL.

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Re: Future Classics

Post by D366Y » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:06 pm

andyd wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:33 am

Luckily Danny there are people like you that are enthusiastic about the older cars :)
I also still buy CD's for the record! :lol:

I also don't get how they've just written off vinyl as it's recently had such a resurgence in popularity they started mass producing them all again

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Re: Future Classics

Post by stevemarl » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:35 pm

Major_Tom wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:35 am
Similarly, when 50 year old cars are still being fixed by the side of the road, sometimes in seconds, then tearing offat 100mph, the downsides of new cars, with limp home modes and sensors that just seem to malfunction a lot and cost hundreds to fix...the benefits of the older tech stand out. Some young folk will be desperate to keep it.
Of course there will always be people who will buck the trend, even cassettes are coming back (0.1% of total sales.) but you need mass acceptance of petrol for it to remain viable. The main problem is that unlike Vinyl where you just need a deck, there`s a whole lot of infrastructure that needs to be in place, everywhere, to enable the running of IC engines. If as suggested petrol stations become few & far between (my nearest unleaded station is in the Peak District) It will use 1/2 a tank just to get fuel & back, And of course it could be prohibitively expensive: will pensioners be able to justify £50 for an hours drive? I mean, I`d love to be optimistic, but the whole thing with self driving etc , it`s all moving so fast in a bad direction. (I often wonder too what will happen in the middle-east where the opulent lifestyles of the elite (PM of Kuwait has a personal collection of 2000 cars) are entirely built on a commodity which will/must become worthless in decades? )
Young people love speed not petrol: the new electric cars will offer that in bucket loads (electric motor, max torque at 0 rpm?) I recently saw a road test of newest Tesla `family car` (under £30k IIRC) v 6.3L AMG and it was quicker! So when the babies of today reach 17 their mum`s shopping trolley will do 60 in 3 seconds! It all looks a bit grim for petrol TBH, I don`t look forward to the future.

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Major_Tom » Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:33 pm

You know we can still get 4 star? Thats not supposed to be around but it is. £2.20 a litre but its there!

With regards to the middle east, they will presumerably want to keep making PETRIL and selling it?

I agree incidentally.... not particularly looking forward to the future either!
My car isn't stupid.... it's MENTAL.

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Not_Anumber » Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:41 pm

I suspect the whole modified / restomod classic scene will rapidly start to change from the current Zetec and V8 transplants over to DIY electric installations. No doubt there are already people out there experimenting with using different battery types and a few extra windings on standard motors to further boost acceleration for quick burns.

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Re: Future Classics

Post by andyd » Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:56 pm

Not_Anumber wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:41 pm
I suspect the whole modified / restomod classic scene will rapidly start to change from the current Zetec and V8 transplants over to DIY electric installations. No doubt there are already people out there experimenting with using different battery types and a few extra windings on standard motors to further boost acceleration for quick burns.
Personally I like the sounds of engines especially V6 and V8s, rather than the speed of them. What do you hear with an electric motor :?

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Cosmicbike » Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:03 pm

Not_Anumber wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:41 pm
I suspect the whole modified / restomod classic scene will rapidly start to change from the current Zetec and V8 transplants over to DIY electric installations. No doubt there are already people out there experimenting with using different battery types and a few extra windings on standard motors to further boost acceleration for quick burns.
This^^.

Already people are lifting full drive trains ffrom the Tesla Model S and putting them in Audi's and the like. In the US there are already a good few companies doing classic conversions, albeit offering limited miles capability, but then most classics don't do long runs anyway.

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Re: Future Classics

Post by tejb1 » Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:09 pm

D366Y wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:06 pm
andyd wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:33 am

Luckily Danny there are people like you that are enthusiastic about the older cars :)
I also still buy CD's for the record! :lol:

I also don't get how they've just written off vinyl as it's recently had such a resurgence in popularity they started mass producing them all again
And, as it's the only format that I can listen to in either car or at home, I still buy cassette tapes!

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Re: Future Classics

Post by stevemarl » Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:15 pm

Major_Tom wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:33 pm
With regards to the middle east, they will presumerably want to keep making PETRIL and selling it?
I`m sure they will want to - but who`ll be buying it if the whole world moves to electric (as they have to - I mean we`ve got people in UK who are still flooded out and Australia`s on fire: surely that`s a sign)? OPEC is gradually going to become less & less relevant to global energy, whoever has the Lithium mines - they willl be the new Saudi.
Not_Anumber wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:41 pm
I suspect the whole modified / restomod classic scene will rapidly start to change from the current Zetec and V8 transplants over to DIY electric installations
I think that`s absolutely spot on. Not yet maybe, but in a decade or so. I`d be really interested in that myself (not on Capri though :lol: )
andyd wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:56 pm
Personally I like the sounds of engines especially V6 and V8s,
Yes, but even now the next gen don`t want the V8 rumble they want something that screams, pops and bangs: went to an American car show on sunday morning, everything from`30s onwards, lots of low rumbling V8s brilliant! (Although I don`t think many owners were under 60). In the afternoon the site was hosting a Subaru club meeting, just screaming, screaming - bang, pop, bang. This is what (most not all) young people seem to want, those that are even bothered. I`m sure i remember years back, a new poster asking how he could make the noise of a dump valve - cos he loved the noise in his mates whatever. It`s a whole new, strange world. Maybe you`ll be able to make your EV sound like a big lazy V8 or a F1 car just with an app on your phone? Now there`s a thought...

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Re: Future Classics

Post by andyd » Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:10 pm

stevemarl wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:15 pm

andyd wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:56 pm
Personally I like the sounds of engines especially V6 and V8s,
Yes, but even now the next gen don`t want the V8 rumble they want something that screams, pops and bangs: went to an American car show on sunday morning, everything from`30s onwards, lots of low rumbling V8s brilliant! (Although I don`t think many owners were under 60). In the afternoon the site was hosting a Subaru club meeting, just screaming, screaming - bang, pop, bang. This is what (most not all) young people seem to want, those that are even bothered. I`m sure i remember years back, a new poster asking how he could make the noise of a dump valve - cos he loved the noise in his mates whatever. It`s a whole new, strange world. Maybe you`ll be able to make your EV sound like a big lazy V8 or a F1 car just with an app on your phone? Now there`s a thought...
I had an Impreza about 10 years ago, nice cars and a great sound from that boxer engine, but I don't want to be in 100 yards of them being revved to the red line while standing still :roll:

Cheap cars now as is the Focus ST therefore a favorite for young drivers to thrash around and give them a bad reputation.

A local car show has been cancelled due to a 'Scooby' clubs antics the last time it was held :( A few bad apples....

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Andrew 2.8i » Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 pm

What seems to be overlooked by the green contingent is the energy use and environmental impact of building a new electric car.
Is it actually better for the environment to drive an older, slightly less green car that has already had energy and earth metals used up during it's manufacture? It surely makes no sense to use even more energy to scrap those vehicles that have already been made.

Anyway, the heat is off the internal combustion engine for the moment as George Monbiot has turned his attention to the cows! :lol:

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Andrew 2.8i » Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:36 pm

I personally feel that there is enough interest from the younger generation in older cars to ensure that they are kept on the road in the future, Well, for as long as petrol is available anyway. Sure, the vast majority want new cars with all the latest gizmos, but hasn't that always been the case?

A few weeks ago a young chap turned up at work for a job interview. OK, it's not a Capri, but this was his daily driver of choice:

ImageTriumph Dolomite Sprint by Andrew 2.8i, on Flickr

If it was up to me he would have got the job there and then! :D

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Jasonmarie » Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:16 pm

I was about to say I bet you gave him the job then noticed your comment at the end . But that’s great he had that passion for the old cars
Ford Capri 2.0 Laser 1987 Mercury Grey ....... :beer:

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Lord Flasheart » Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:33 pm

Just to add a little more to the youth appreciation, our 20 year old engineering trainee bought a road worthy 1992 classic Mini about September time last year.

Needless to say he has been picking the brains of many of us older gits who had them as first cars back in the day ;)

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Re: Future Classics

Post by Caprifan Rob » Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:13 pm

Luckily for me, and I bet a fair few others on here, I'm really not bothered about the value of my Capri. I just bought it to have fun in. I'd like to think I'll be able to drive it for many years to come and have no plans to sell it. I'll let my kids worry about its value. ( I'm only bothered about the price of parts ;) ).
Can't afford to invest in a classic car collection so one less thing to worry about :). If petrol prices go through the roof & we have to travel miles to get it in 20 years time, I'll save up & fill up on the way to a show for noisy smelly old fashion cars. 8-)

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Re: Future Classics

Post by stevemarl » Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:24 am

Andrew 2.8i wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:13 pm
Is it actually better for the environment to drive an older, slightly less green car that has already had energy and earth metals used up during it's manufacture? It s
That`s absolutely true, there were arguments against the scrappage scheme of 20?? for that exact reason. The story was that it used more energy (oil) to make a car than that car would ever consume as fuel in its lifetime. The greens were suggesting schemes to encourage longer usage of cars instead as this would benefit the environment and also generate new industries refurbishing and repairing, thus creating jobs too. But no, they legislate to make this years cars 5% more efficient - then sell 6% more of them! They`ve just been shuffling numbers around for years whilst nothing changes.
I`m neuther a green or an environmentalist by the way, I just think the whole way it`s all been handled (scrappage etc) is laughably ha`penny and cake.

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